Global tourism: growing fast

Leisure is estimated to account for 75 per cent of all international travel. The World Tourism Organisation (WTO) estimated there were 694 million international tourist arrivals in 2003, a drop of 1.2 per cent (attributed to the problems of the Iraq conflict, SARS and a generally weak world economy). Arrivals have picked up in 2004, and they are expected to reach 1.6 billion by 2020. Domestic tourism (people going on holiday in their own country) is generally thought to be 4-5 times greater than international arrivals. The WTO puts global revenue from tourism in 2003 at 514.4 billion US$.

Globally, tourism accounts for roughly 35 per cent of exports of services and over 8 per cent of exports of goods (WTO). Tourism is now the world’s largest employer. In 2001, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) estimated that globally over 207 million jobs were directly or indirectly employed in tourism. In the UK alone, 10% of total employment is in the tourism sector.

The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) predicts that the ten new accession countries which joined the EU in 2004 will generate up to 54.6 billion US$ of travel and tourism GDP, and create an extra 3 million jobs. These figures would arguably make tourism the EU’s largest business in terms of income.

• For 83 per cent of countries in the world, tourism is one of the top five sources of foreign exchange.
  
  
• Caribbean countries derive half their GDP from tourism. (World Resources Institute)
  

• Benidorm's tourism industry accounts for 1 per cent of Spain's GDP.

Where tourists go

Three quarters of all international travellers visit a country in either Europe or North America. However, the share of international tourists travelling to Asia and the Pacific rose from just 1 per cent in 1950 to 17.2 per cent in 2003. Despite the impact of SARS, which caused an estimated decline of 9.3 per cent in arrivals in 2003, Asia has outstripped the Americas in terms of international tourist arrivals, and is the most popular destination after Europe. China is expected to unseat France as the most visited country and to become the fourth largest source of tourists.

Over 80 per cent of international tourists come from just 20 countries in the North - 17 in Europe plus the USA, Canada and Japan. Five nations (the US, Japan, Germany, France and the UK) account for almost half of all tourist spending. Around 15 per cent of tourists originate in East Asia and the Pacific and 5 per cent in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia combined.

Just over half of all spending on tourism is spent by travellers from just ten countries.

Industry organisations

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• World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC): A trade association based in Brussels and London and made up of around 70 chief executives of major airlines, hotel chains, cruise lines and catering companies.
  

• World Tourism Organisation (WTO): based in Madrid and created by the United Nations, the WTO consists of a mix of 130-plus governments and 350 affiliated private enterprises. Compiles industry statistics and market trends.
  

• American Society of Travel Agents (ASTA): The largest travel trade association in the world, representing 26,500 travel agents in 170 countries (Honey).
  

• Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA): The trade association of the major British tour operators.

The air industry

Like much of the tourism and travel industry in 2003, air traffic was down an estimated 1% by the end of the year (WTO). Domestic traffic increased by 0.7%, but international traffic fell by 5.5%. These results were heavily influenced by drop of nearly 11% in traffic to destinations in Asia and the Pacific(attributed mostly to SARS), plus there was a 6.5% drop on Atlantic routes. Trends are picking up again significantly, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reporting substantial growth since July 2003, with overall growth of 18% in total passenger traffic. Nevertheless, the substantial hike in fuel prices means that many airlines continue to function at a loss. Most major international airlines are now linked into four global alliances: Oneworld, Star, Sky Team and Qualiflyer.

Growth of tourism

International tourist arrivals increased from 25 million in 1950 to 693 million in 2003, and are predicted to grow to 1.56 billion by 2020 (WTO). Globally, the tourism industry is growing at 4.6 per cent (WTTC).The number of air passengers rose from 9 million in 1945 to 88 million in 1972, 344 million in 1994 and 1.72 billion in 2002 (IATA).

Factors in tourism's growth include:

Increasing leisure time: In 1936, the International Labour Organisation convention provided for one week's leave per year for workers in developed countries. In 1970, this was expanded to three weeks, and in 1999 to four weeks.

Increased disposable income: Spending on leisure in the UK has risen from 9 per cent of household income in 1978 to 17 per cent in 1998 (Tearfund: Tourism: An Ethical Issue, 2000). In 2002-3 the UK Family Expenditure Survey found UK households spent £660 a year on holidays, totaling £308 million for the year.

Falling real cost of air travel: Between 1978 and 1998, the real cost of air travel fell by 35 per cent (Air Travel Association). A thousand miles of air travel now requires 61 hours less work than it did a generation ago.

Growth of tourism to the South

In 1950, 97 per cent of international tourists went to Europe or North America (in fact, to just 15 countries). By 2003 this had fallen to 78.8 per cent. In the mid-1970s, 8 per cent of all international tourists were from the North visiting the South. By the mid-1990s, this had risen to 20 per cent (Honey). In 1999, more than 70 countries received over a million international tourist arrivals.

Growth of tourism in/from the South

In recent years, domestic and intra-regional tourism in the South has grown rapidly, especially in emerging economies such as China, Thailand, India, Korea, China and Mexico.

• Tourists originating in Asia and the Pacific increased from 81.8 million in 1995 to 131.2 million in 2002, a total of 18.7% of the world total, and increase of 7.9% since 2001 (WTO).
  

• In 1995, 108 million people worked in tourism in China and South Asia, compared to only 42 million in the North (North America, Australasia, Japan and the European Community).
  

• Intra-regional tourism (people travelling within the same continent/region) accounted for 73 per cent of total tourist arrivals in East Asia and the Pacific in 1998. In Africa, intra-regional tourism increased from 38 per cent of all arrivals in 1980 to 60 per cent in 1990. (WTO)
  

• 90 per cent of visitors to national parks in Thailand, India and South Africa are domestic tourists. (Ceballos-Lascurain 1996). Of 200,000 annual visitors to Kinabalu National Park in Sabah, Malaysia, 90 per cent are Malaysian. At Mt Bromo in Java, Indonesia, 70 per cent of visitors are Indonesian.

This section was compiled by Mark Mann, author of The Gringo Trail and Tourism Concern's Community Tourism Guide and updated by Francisca Kellett.

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