China poised to lead renewables race

That is the major conclusion of a new report from the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute written by Beijing-based researcher Eric Martinot and Li Junfeng, Vice Chair of China's Renewable Energy Society in Beijing. "A combination of policy leadership and entrepreneurial savvy is leading to spectacular growth in renewable energy, increasing its share of the market for electricity, heating, and transport fuels," said Martinot. "China is poised to become a leader in renewables manufacturing, which will have global implications for the future of the technology."

More than $50 billion was invested in renewable energy worldwide in 2006, and China is expected to invest over $10 billion in new renewables
capacity in 2007, second only to Germany. Wind and solar energy are expanding particularly rapidly in China, with production of wind turbines and solar cells both doubling in 2006. China is poised to pass world solar and wind manufacturing leaders in Europe, Japan, and North America in the next three years, and already dominates the markets for solar hot water and small hydropower.

"Our ingenuity and manufacturing prowess are being harnessed to provide leadership to the world on renewables," said Li Junfeng. "China's
position provides a strong example for other developing countries, while helping to drive down renewable energy costs to become competitive with fossil fuels for all countries the world over."

Impressive gains

The report discusses China's advances in wind power, solar photovoltaics (PV), solar heating, biomass power, and biofuels. Impressive gains in
these sectors include:

• Wind power is the fastest growing power-generation technology in China, with existing capacity doubling during 2006 alone. By 2007, China was home to four major Chinese manufacturers of wind turbines, another six foreign subsidiary manufacturers, and more than 40 firms developing prototypes and aspiring to produce turbines commercially.
  

• Solar PV production capacity in China jumped from 350 megawatts (MW) in 2005 to over 1,000 MW in 2006, with 1,500 MW expected in 2007. With high-profile initial public stock offerings for several Chinese companies, some valued in the billions of dollars, global attention has been riveted to China's solar PV industry.
  

• Growth in solar hot water systems has been rapid, rising from 35 million square metres of installed capacity in 2000 to 100 million
  square metres by the end of 2006. China added 20 million square metres of new capacity in 2006 alone. Chinese companies now produce the solar heaters - an increasingly desirable consumer appliance-at costs one-fifth to one-eighth those found in the United States and Europe.
  

• Wastes from agricultural facilities in China could yield 80 billion cubic metres of biogas annually, well above the government's target of 44 billion cubic metres annually by 2020. In 2006, China had about 2 gigawatts (GW) of biomass power generation capacity, mostly from combined heat-and-power (CHP) plants with sugarcane waste as the primary feedstock.
  

• Total ethanol production in China in 2006 was about 1 billion litres, compared with global production of 37 billion litres, primarily in the United States and Brazil. Higher corn prices and concern about competition with food supplies led to a moratorium on corn-based ethanol, leaving sorghum, cassava, and sugar cane as the current feedstocks of choice. Prospects for significant ethanol expansion in China rest primarily on the future of cellulose-to-ethanol technology, the viability of which experts expect will be proven within the next 10 years.

With its booming economy and rapidly expanding energy consumption - particularly its use of coal and oil - it is imperative for China to diversify its energy supplies. The country has suffered frequent power shortages due to its breakneck economic development. China's urban population, which uses nearly three times more electricity and commercial energy per person than rural residents do, increased from 375 million in 1999 to 577 million in 2006. The country's automobile fleet also continues to balloon, with an estimated 1,000 new cars appearing on Beijing's streets every day.

Coal now provides 80 per cent of China's electricity, and national electricity demand doubled between 2000 and 2006. As a result, China's economic development, environment, and public health are severely affected: for example, only 1 per cent of urban Chinese breathe air that meets European air quality standards. Coal generation also leads to the build up of toxic metals, such as mercury, in water supplies and on agricultural fields throughout China.

China's carbon dioxide emissions are on the rise and are expected to exceed total US carbon dioxide emissions shortly, although Chinese
per-capita emissions remain about one-sixth those of the United States.

Nuclear power provides just 7 GW of China's electric capacity, and even with the additional plants planned in the next few decades, it is unlikely to provide more than 5 per cent of the country's electricity.

Worldwatch President Christopher Flavin praised China's growing commitment to renewables: "The combination of ambitious targets supported by strong government policies and entrepreneurial acumen may soon allow China's renewable energy sector to 'leapfrog' many developed nations."

Hard copies of 'Powering China's Development: The Role of Renewable Energy' are available for $19.95 plus shipping and handling; digital versions are available for download for $9.95. Both can be purchased through the Worldwatch website: target="_blank">www.worldwatch.org

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