Production: the trends

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• World cereal production is projected to increase from 1.9 billion tonnes today to 2.8 billion tonnes by 2030. A bit over half will go for human consumption, and the rest for animal feed.
  

• In 1960 Africa was a net food exporter. Since then it has become increasingly dependent on imports and food aid, and the number of undernourished has doubled. While per capita food production has been steadily rising for the world, by over 20 per cent since 1960, it has been steadily falling in Africa.
  

• According to FAO, crop production in developing countries will increase by 70 per cent over the next 30 years. Eighty per cent of this will come from more intensive production, and 20 per cent for further expansion of arable land. By 2030 an additional 120 million hectares, most in sub-Sahara Africa and South America - will be growing crops. Much of this will be cleared forest land.
  

• Growing imports: FAO also point out that developing countries will become increasingly dependent on imports of cereals, which are expected to nearly triple to some 270 million tonnes by 2030. Most of this will have to come from traditional exporters in North America, Western Europe and Australia, it says.
  

• In general, no one lives exclusively on imported food, although there are isolated cases such as small island states and isolated communities, where the food supply may predominantly be imported. On the whole, imported food constitutes approximately one-fifth of world food consumption. It contributes about 600 calories a day to the world's daily average of around 2800 calories per person. One may infer from this and say that this is equivalent to food supply for about 1.2 billion people. This is not equivalent to the number of people who depend on imported food for survival.

Cereal imports in developing countries are projected to more than double by 2030. Each region will show significant growth, with the Near East and North Africa continuing to account for the bulk of imports (nearly 40 per cent). Source: FAO.

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• Agriculture accounts for 11 per cent of the value of all world exports. A quarter of Latin America�s exports are agricultural, and 18 per cent of Africa�s.
  

• Forty million hectares of transgenic crops - in other words crops developed using techniques of genetic modification - were grown in 1999. The largest areas were devoted to cotton, soya, soy bean and rape seed. In the United States, 55 per cent of all cotton was transgenic, 50 per cent of soy bean and 33 per cent of corn.
  

• At present, the average per capita consumption of fish stands at 16 kilograms. It is likely to rise to 19-20 kilograms by 2030. As many of the world�s fish stocks are already fished to capacity, or overfished, most of the increase will come from aquaculture.
  

• As affluence rises in developing countries, more and more people want to eat meat. This, in turn, leads to more and more land being devoted to providing animal feed. In China the amount of grain used for animal feed in 1960 was less than 10 million tonnes. By the mid 1990s it had risen to over 95 million tonnes per year. World meat production, especially of pork and poultry, has been rapidly rising over the past half century.
  

• Half of all our food is produced by women. In sub-Sahara Africa women provide 80 per cent of staple foods. In Asia, they perform 90 per cent of the work in rice paddies. Besides this, rural women are almost entirely responsible for the handling, storage, marketing and processing of food in many countries.

Fertilizing maize, Burkina Faso. Credit: FAO/D. Debert

• Some 800 million urban dwellers are involved in producing food, either for their own consumption or for sale, within the boundaries of the world�s cities. A study in Nairobi found that 32 per cent of the city�s land used for farming was private, 29 per cent was along roadsides and most of the rest on riverbanks and other publicly-owned space. (Link to article on Kenya�s city farmers).
  

  Link:
  

  FAO: Food security and the environment.

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